After nearly two decades of status quo, India and Kuwait are reported to have updated their bilateral air services agreement, increasing weekly seat capacity from 12,000 to 18,000 per side. The move marks a 50% increase in capacity and is being seen as a long-overdue correction to meet growing demand.
A memorandum of understanding was signed in New Delhi on July 16, 2025, between Kuwait and India, aiming to enhance bilateral cooperation in civil aviation, improve operational efficiency, and promote connectivity between the two countries. Both sides emphasized the importance of closer coordination in line with the growth in passenger traffic and the strong ties between their peoples.
But behind the headlines is a deeper story – one shaped by diaspora demographics, growing travel patterns, and a rare case of Gulf aviation diplomacy that avoided getting entangled in strategic competition between carriers.
A Seat Crunch for a One-Million-Strong Community
According to data from the Indian Embassy in Kuwait, the Indian community there now numbers over 1 million — more than double the estimated figure from 18 years ago, when the last seat entitlement was set in 2007.
In 2002, there were just 400,000 Indians in Kuwait. By 2023, the number had reached 1,000,726, with 885,000 classified as blue-collared workers. Despite this population surge, air traffic rights remained frozen at 12,000 outbound seats per week for Indian carriers, and the same for Kuwaiti carriers since 2007.
The result? A growing mismatch between travel demand and available capacity — one that disproportionately affected lower-income workers with limited travel flexibility and high price sensitivity.
Why Kuwait Was an Easy Yes — and UAE Isn’t (Yet)
Unlike other Gulf aviation negotiations, this overdue capacity for a large diaspora wasn’t tangled up in fierce airline competition. Kuwait Airways and Jazeera Airways, the two Kuwaiti carriers operating to India, are not dominant global players and don’t pose a competitive threat to Indian airlines on long-haul routes.
Contrast that with the UAE or Qatar — home to mega-connectors like Emirates, Etihad, and Qatar Airways — whose expanded access could siphon away long-haul transfer traffic from Indian carriers. That makes any negotiation with them politically charged and strategically delicate.
Do We Even Need So Many Weekly Seats?
With the new agreement allowing a 50% capacity enhancement, to 18,000 weekly seats per side, it’s fair to ask whether demand between India and the small Gulf nation can keep up. A closer look suggests the answer is yes — though the growth will likely be gradual.
The one-million-strong Indian diaspora is the largest expatriate community in Kuwait. Existing carriers — Kuwait Airways, Jazeera Airways, IndiGo, Air India Express, and Akasa Air — are already operating close to their previous seat entitlements.
A large and growing Indian expatriate population will continue to drive visiting friends and relatives (VFR) traffic, while expanding bilateral ties are likely to sustain demand from business, medical, and tourism segments.
There will still be capacity in the system and that’s by design. The agreement allows for measured future growth, not an immediate ramp-up.
Airlines are unlikely to activate their full 18,000 seats per week right away. Instead, the revised deal gives them the flexibility to adjust capacity, open new city-pair routes, and improve fare competitiveness – all without the strain of artificially tight constraints.
Beyond Policy: A Practical Fix
In many ways, this agreement represents a long-overdue course correction that finally aligns air capacity with demographic reality. The demographic growth, market maturity, and absence of carrier conflict made Kuwait the logical next step in India’s bilateral expansion strategy.
And for over a million Indians living in Kuwait, the increase isn’t just about more flights. It’s about more fairness, more affordability, and more access.
Image: Pexels/Owen Sun
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